The 2024 US presidential election put bitcoin markets on alert for turbulence, and Bitfinex’s research in the run-up to the vote became one of the most closely watched reads on how political uncertainty might move crypto prices. That election is now behind the market, but the questions it raised have not gone away: the 2026 US midterms are approaching, and election-cycle volatility is back on traders’ radar.

Below is a look at what Bitfinex actually flagged before the 2024 vote, how markets positioned and then behaved, what history says about bitcoin and US election cycles, and the practical strategies investors use to manage election-period risk.

Key takeaways

• Options markets priced the event. Ahead of the 2024 vote, Bitfinex reported that options expiring on key dates around the election were commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol.
• Short-term turbulence was the base case. Bitfinex expected short-term volatility to be higher than usual regardless of the outcome, while staying confident about the longer-term price picture.
• Positioning was restrained before the results. Implied volatility in the options market hovered around the low 40% range as investors awaited the outcome, and spot volatility stayed low into the vote.
• History offers a warning for midterm years. Bitcoin fell after four US midterms, and analysts are asking whether 2026 could break the pattern.
• Risk management, not prediction, is the edge. Hedging, position sizing and diversification remain the practical toolkit for election periods.

What Bitfinex said before the 2024 election

In late October 2024, Bitfinex’s Alpha research reported that options expiring on key dates around the election were commanding higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol. The derivatives market, in other words, was paying up for protection around the event itself.

The same Bitfinex Alpha issue framed the bigger picture: regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility was expected to be higher than usual, while the firm remained confident in the longer-term price outlook. That combination — braced for near-term swings, constructive further out — defined how many trading desks approached the vote.

How markets positioned into the vote

Despite the anticipation, the days before the election were notably calm. Bitget reported that bitcoin volatility was low as the US presidential election approached, with Bitfinex anticipating increased market activity after the results. CryptoSlate similarly noted that bitcoin’s implied volatility in the options market hovered around the low 40% range, reflecting restrained confidence in major price moves.

The picture was one of a market waiting rather than panicking: hedges in place, premiums elevated around key dates, but no rush to reprice bitcoin before the outcome was known.

What happened afterwards

The calm did not last indefinitely. By March 2025, Reuters was describing a bitcoin bear market that hit newcomers hardest, and reported outflows of around $1.1 billion from US spot bitcoin ETFs. For investors who entered late in the cycle, the episode underlined that risk management matters long after the votes are counted.

Election cycles and bitcoin: what history shows

Presidential races are not the only US elections that matter to crypto markets. According to CryptoPotato, bitcoin fell after four US midterms — 72% after the 2010 midterms, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022 — and the open question heading into the next cycle is whether 2026 could break the pattern.

Past performance never guarantees the next cycle, but numbers like these explain why election years keep risk managers busy well beyond presidential contests.

What Bitfinex is watching now

Bitfinex’s research desk has kept publishing macro analysis since the 2024 cycle. According to Bitcoin.com News, the exchange recently listed 17 macro catalysts that could move bitcoin in October, noting that October gains may depend on continued buying as higher Treasury yields compete for investors’ money. The focus has widened from one election to a broader set of macro and policy drivers.

Investment strategies for election periods

Election windows reward preparation more than prediction. The approaches below are general risk-management techniques, not financial advice.

Hedging and position management

• Use options strategies, such as protective puts, to cap downside around known event dates.
• Monitor implied volatility to judge how expensive protection has become before adding hedges.
• Reduce position sizes and set predefined stop-loss levels during high-uncertainty windows.

Diversification approaches

• Spread exposure across multiple crypto assets rather than concentrating in one position.
• Hold a portion of a portfolio in stablecoins or traditional instruments to dampen swings.
• Consider exchanges and jurisdictions with different regulatory environments to reduce concentrated regulatory risk.

Regulatory stakes in election outcomes

Elections shape the policy environment crypto operates in. Outcomes can influence taxation frameworks for digital assets, regulatory agency oversight, compliance requirements for cryptocurrency exchanges, and how blockchain-based tokens are classified. For institutional investors, that policy backdrop feeds directly into risk appetite, which is why candidate platforms and agency leadership changes draw so much attention from crypto desks during election seasons.

Conclusion

The 2024 US presidential election tested how bitcoin markets handle political uncertainty: derivatives priced the event, spot markets stayed calm into the vote, and Bitfinex’s call for elevated short-term volatility alongside longer-term confidence captured the mood. With the 2026 midterms ahead and a history of post-midterm drawdowns on the record, the same discipline applies — watch the options market, respect the policy stakes, and manage risk rather than trying to predict the result.

Frequently asked questions

What did Bitfinex expect around the 2024 US election?

Bitfinex’s Alpha research said short-term volatility was likely to be higher than usual regardless of the election outcome, while the firm stayed confident in the longer-term price outlook. Options expiring on key dates around the election commanded higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to peak at 100 daily vol.

How volatile was bitcoin just before the 2024 vote?

Volatility was low as the election approached. Implied volatility in the options market hovered around the low 40% range, reflecting restrained confidence in major price moves, and Bitfinex anticipated increased market activity after the results.

Why do the 2026 midterms matter for bitcoin?

Bitcoin fell after four US midterms — 72% after 2010, 65% after 2014, 52% after 2018 and 27% after 2022 — which is why analysts are asking whether 2026 could break the pattern.

What strategies help during election-driven volatility?

Common approaches include options hedging, tighter position sizing, predefined stop-loss levels, diversification across assets and jurisdictions, and holding stablecoins or traditional instruments to stabilise a portfolio.

Is bitcoin a safe-haven asset during political uncertainty?

Interest in bitcoin as a potential hedge tends to increase during periods of political uncertainty, but positioning before the 2024 vote showed investors treating it cautiously, with restrained options-market pricing until the result was known.